Prognostication

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication – Leg 4 Predictions

Well, my individual legs are somewhat accurate, but so far my overall is doing really well. Two of the three eliminated teams were in my early boot group, and the third was the wildcard that could have been anywhere in the order. Will the streak hold? Let’s look.

Bransen: 12456, 12456, 12345. Large Straight, 40 points.
Linz: 33566, 33466, 33366. Full House, 25 points.
Schroeder: 12446, 44446, 24444. Four of a Kind, 19 points.
Godlewski: 14566, 33366. Full House, 25 points.
Weaver: 14556, 55556, 15555. Four of a Kind, 21 points.
Paolo: 12246, 12255, 22225. Four of a Kind, 13 points.
Gaghan: 12456, 24556, 45556. Three of a Kind, 25 points.

Well, maybe not. Four of the seven teams got positive rolls, The Linzes’ Full House is good here, and quad-oaks result for all the rest of these teams, among them the Paolos. They were the last ones I’d picked as early outs, and unfortunately that doesn’t appear to be happening.

Based on the previews, the Weavers deserve a little closer look. As stated above, they got the quad-oak like two other teams. Looking at the points, they’ve got the most of the three. That usually means that they’ll do the worst of these three teams. So all their “trouble” is for nothing as they make mid-pack again.

The Gaghans are in a bit of trouble. They’ve got the normally positive triple-oak, but they do have a 6 kicker. That kicker usually makes the roll negative. I don’t think they’re out of it, but don’t look for them to make it out of the back of the pack.

Instead, it appears that the Bransens and the Pinks are in the most danger this week. This time, the Pink Full House is not positive. The difference is in the number of rolls to get the result. The Large Straight is also pretty bad, so it looks like Wally and the girls may be getting to use their free gas sooner rather than later. Either way, it looks like we’re losing a team with at least three females this time.