The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication - Leg 2 Predictions

Okay, I’m the first to admit that that was not the most accurate of starts. But I did say that the Blacks were going to be in the first group that heads to Sequesterville. So I got that going for me.

Time to look at the rolls for leg 2.

Godlewski: 11122. Full House, 25 points.
Gaghan: 23355, 33455, 33556. Chance, 22 points.
Weaver: 24466, 34466, 44666. Full House, 25 points.
Rogers: 34456, 34556, 33456. Small Straight, 30 points.
Schroeder: 22225 , 22222. Yahtzee, 50 points.
Paolo: 13466, 12566, 14666. Three of a Kind, 23 points.
Bransen: 22446, 22445, 12244. Chance, 13 points.
Aiello: 13556, 12455, 12555. Three of a Kind, 18 points.
Linz: 25666, 34666, 46666. Four of a Kind, 28 points.

Teams with positive results, and thus a move up in the ranks are the Weavers, the Bransens, and the Linzes. Possibly the top 3 at the mat this week.

The Rogerses have a neutral roll, so they’ll probably stay in 4th place.

The rest of the teams have negative results, so they‘ll make up the trailing pack. The Schroeders’ Yahtzee sticks out as unusual, but I don’t think it’s fatal just yet. I’d expect either the Aiellos or the Paolos to ride their triple-oak with a consistent to the final spot.

There does seem to be a bit of confluence, with at least one pair in all initial rolls. That usually signals something unusual, like a NEL or TBC. Thus I wouldn’t be surprised if all nine teams survived until next week.