Prognostication

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication – Leg 2 Predictions

The Yahtzee Method didn't as well as it has in the past, before its TARflies debut. I'm going to chalk it up to stage fright for the time being. The dice are a little skittish sometimes. But that's the past. Looking at the rolls for this leg, we can see a few minor confluences, and a bit of mixing of the pack.
  • Debbie & Bianca: 11225, 11122. Full House, 25 points.

  • Susan & Patrick: 22355, 22555. Full House, 25 points.

  • Rob & Amber: 23456. Large Straight, 40 points.

  • Brian & Greg: 12455, 12355, 33455. Chance, 20 points.

  • Lynn & Alex: 22346, 12225, 22246. Three of a Kind, 16 points.

  • Meredith & Gretchen: 12355, 35556, 55555. Yahtzee, 50 points.

  • Ray & Deena: 11225, 11222. Full House, 25 points.

  • Uchenna & Joyce: 12356, 12235, 22225. Four of a Kind, 13 points.

  • Megan & Heidi: 11125, 11116, 11112. Four of a Kind, 6 points.

  • Ron & Kelly: 11236, 11146, 11114. Four of a Kind, 8 points.

As before, we start with the positive rolls. Both of Leg 1's last place finishers hit a very positive quadruple oak. Look for these two teams to make big leaps ahead, to high mid-pack/low front-pack. All three of the mid-pack landed in the positive as well. The brothers look poised to take first this leg, with the "happy boys" not too far behind, or possibly vice-versa. And an unexpected Yahtzee for the seniors seems to land them into fourth.
Why only fourth? There's a neutral roll, and it went to the third place finishers, Romber. It appears that they'll hold on to that position this time around. If not, they'll slip only to mid-pack.

That brings us to the negative rolls and the remainder of the teams. Three out of the four got a Full house in two rolls; Susan & Patrick, Debbie & Bianca, and Ray and Deanna. In addition, the latter two teams got the same initial roll. A link should be forged between those two teams on this leg. But Uchenna & Joyce seem to have the worst roll for this week. If it weren't for the consistent, they'd be near the top of the pack. But that 5 hung around, so it seems that these two won't. (And my feeling of dejá vu increases ever so slightly…)

The confluences are the three 2-roll Full Houses, the set of quadruple-oaks for the trailing teams, and the duplicate 1s and 2s that link both of those sets. Something a bit unusual may make its presence known in this leg. We know the RoadBlock is expected, along with its new 6-per rule. Will that rule change again? Or will something else happen?

In the end, look for an alpha-male leg victory, and prepare to say goodbye to a nice team that gave us a little too much information. And expect the unexpected…but that's just good advice for Racers and TARflies alike.