Prognostication

The Tip Sheet

With a couple of legs in the bag, this season's teams have had a good opportunity to show us what they are made of.

The Tip Sheet - Pre-race Edition

After this many seasons, it should be possible to make some pretty decent predictions based on the past - even allowing for typical race randomness.

Episode 6: Eeny-meeny, chili-beeny, the spirits are about to speak....

The hexagram for leg 6 is # 9 -- Hsiao Ch'u / The Taming Power of the Small. The overarching theme of this hexagram is that small obstacles may impede forward progress of stronger, more powerful things, and that progress can be made with small steps.

Episode 4: Eeny-meeny, chili-beeny, the spirits are about to speak....

Part the fourth, in which Rabrab gets another cookie, eats some more humble pie, and waffles more about team placements. In which she finally gets around to throwing the Zodiac stuff back into the mix. In which she also probably should have some supper, considering all the food-related figures of speech she's using...

Episode 3: Eeny-meeny, chili-beeny, the spirits are about to speak...

Part the third, in which Rabrab has both another portion of crow, and a cookie. In which she briefly waxes philosophical on the pitfalls of believing that because she doesn't like something, it doesn't work.

Episode 2: Eeny-meeny, chili-beeny, the spirits are about to speak....

Part the second, in which Rabrab has been sick as a dog for the last week wimps out. In which she is served up her first helping of crow, finds it not utterly unbearable, and decides to continue this nonsense.

Eeny-meeny, chili-beeny, the spirits are about to speak....

Part the first, in which Daria and Rabrab will run the I Ching and Randomly-Generated Astrology together head-on at a high rate of speed and see what kind of carnage results.

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication – Episode 10 Predictions

The final four teams are decided. The endgame approaches. The Con draws near.

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication – Episode 9 Predictions

It’s that time again. Time for this column’s format change. Starting this week through the end of the season, I’ll first look at each team’s results individually, then look at them all as a whole.

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication—Episode 7 Predictions

Bit of a heartbreaker last week, but not a totally unforeseen one. So I’m doing a little better than 50% this go-around. Let’s see if I’m on a streak now.

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication—Episode 6 Predictions

SVNBob checks in with some last minute predictions.

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication—Episode 5 Predictions

If you look at last week’s predictions a certain way, I was right. Granted, that way is to do look at the opposite what I actually said.

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication—Episode 4 Predictions

Coming off a couple of good weeks of predictions, I can honestly say I didn’t see that coming.

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication – Leg 1 Predictions

Time to dust off the dice and try to predict this crazy little thing called TAR.

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication – Leg 10b Predictions

When we last left our teams, the Linzes were lagging, the Godlewskis were gearing up, and the Bransens found out there truly was no rest for the wicke-…I mean Weavers.

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication – Leg 10 Predictions

Another not-so-hot set of predictions for me last week. I only got 2 things right. It was a NEL, and the Weavers do have LOE.

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication – Leg 9 Predictions

After a double-length episode followed by one week off from this weakest of TAR seasons, we’re back. And since we’re down to the final four teams, it’s time for a little change of format.

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication – Episode 7 Predictions

The more astute among my readers (by which I naturally mean all of you) will have noticed a title change for this week’s column. There’s a good reason for that.

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication – Leg 6 Predictions

Things are starting to get back on track. The Race finally made it out of the US, and the dice finally had an accurate prediction. Will they be two for two?

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication – Leg 5 Predictions

I’ve been hitting some of the highlights this season, but most of the major points have eluded the 6 of us thus far. Maybe now that we’re leaving the US, things will get back on track.

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication – Leg 4 Predictions

Well, my individual legs are somewhat accurate, but so far my overall is doing really well. Two of the three eliminated teams were in my early boot group, and the third was the wildcard that could have been anywhere in the order.

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication – Leg 3 Predictions

Another off leg. Well, a slow start is not unexpected. The dice are more reliable the fewer teams there are.

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication - Leg 2 Predictions

Okay, I’m the first to admit that that was not the most accurate of starts. But I did say that the Blacks were going to be in the first group that heads to Sequesterville. So I got that going for me.

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication - Pre-Race and Leg 1 Predictions

Another season, another opportunity to roll the dice. If you are new to the Yahtzee method of TAR prognostication, or if you need a refresher on what I’m talking about, please read my introductory article. Go ahead, I’ll wait.

The Oregon Trail Method

The world is waiting. Groups prepare to leave on an epic journey. The pace is grueling. Not all the groups will arrive at their final destination. But groups who travel safe, avoid fatigue, and overcome roadblocks will make it to the finish line.

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication – Finale Predictions

Well, it’s all been said and done, but I still made some predictions before the end. All these predictions were witnessed by several other TARflies, so nothing has been altered, except maybe perception.

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication - Leg 10 Predictions

Ok, last week I was wrong. Really wrong.

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication - Leg 9 Predictions

Wow, what a leg…or couple of legs, depending on how you look at it.

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication – Leg 8b Predictions

With the TBC, I could let the results from last week’s predictions stand, but that doesn’t seem right. So I went ahead and re-rolled.

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication – Leg 8 Predictions

I swear SVNBob got this in before the episode started - it just took us a bit to get it posted.

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication - Leg 7 Predictions

SVNBob is back with his unique method of prediction.

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication - Leg 4 Predictions

Not my best week last time. Allow me to quote myself re: Debbie & Bianca. "…I've almost upgraded [their result] to a neutral. I don't foresee much danger for them."

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication — Leg 3 Predictions

In my Leg 1 article, I predicted that it would probably come down to either Brian & Greg or Megan & Heidi. In Leg 2, that was the exact case. Very interesting…

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication – Leg 2 Predictions

The Yahtzee Method didn't as well as it has in the past, before its TARflies debut. I'm going to chalk it up to stage fright for the time being.

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication – Pre-Race and Leg 1 Predictions

Now TARsday is upon us, so let’s look at it in action, beginning with a pre-race overall standing prediction, quickly followed by a set for Leg 1.

The Yahtzee Method of TAR Prognostication – Introduction and Basic Principles

Using a tried and true prognostication method, like astrology or the I-Ching, to predict the outcome of a reality show is one thing, but inventing a prognostication method to predict the outcome of a reality show is another.

I Ching — Two-Part Finale

Last week, the I Ching was completely right. It wasn’t all that enthused, mind you — it kept whining “where are Lori and Bolo?” and “these teams are boring!”

I Ching — Episode Eleven

We are now down to the final four in The Dark TAR, the TAR with the worst bunching and the worst cast.

I Ching — Episode Ten

Are you exhausted from vigorous happy dancing over the latest elimination? I am, and I think the I Ching was even grinning at me this morning.

I Ching — Episode Nine

So we only have one more non-elimination leg to go now, and a bad reading this week likely means doom.

I Ching — Episode Eight

What say we take a break before the next gross eating task? These teams will all do better this week if that is the case.

I Ching — Episode Seven

How will the teams experience part two of this unprecedented mid-race double leg?

I Ching — Episode Six

Hey, this new method is more accurate and more fun! More fun for me at least — and you’re either reading this or you’re not.

I Ching — Episode Five

Okay, let’s face it: my placement record stinks with this, Meredith and Maria’s correctly predicted Philimination notwithstanding.

I Ching — Episode Four

The question this week is “how did this team experience this leg of the race?”

I Ching — Episode Three

There does appear to be some randomness here – and some learning on the part of the interpreter.

I Ching — Episode Two

Okay, so some of last week's predictions were close, and some weren't. Let's see how the coins and their interpreter do this week.

I Ching — Episode One

For Episode One, I asked the rather straightforward question “How will this team place in this leg?”

I Ching – Pre-Race

By way of introduction to this article, I’d like to explain that I threw the I Ching for many years and became quite adept at it. Unfortunately, those years were back in the 1960s and 1970s, when I was a teenager...

Astrological Predictions – Episode Twelve

Rabrab rolls her dice and gives us her predictions for the TAR finale!

Astrological Predictions – Episode Eleven

It may not be as much fun as rolling a zorb, but with Rabrab rolling the dice the results are always interesting.

Astrological Predictions - Episode Ten

Rabrab's been rolling, rolling, rolling - see what her dice predict for episode ten.

Astrological Predictions - Episode Nine

Rabrab's dice make some bold predictions and defy the current odds makers.

Astrological Predictions - Episode Eight

Rabrab's dice predict the same last place team as Alex. Let's see how they do!

Astrological Predictions - Episode Seven

Once again, Rabrab rolls her dice and gives us her predictions for the next TAR episode.

Astrological Predictions - Episode Six

Once again, Rabrab rolls her dice and gives us her predictions for the next TAR episode.

Astrological Predictions - Episode Five

Rabrab rolls her dice and gives us her predictions for post caviar TAR.

Astrological Predictions - Episode Four

Once again, Rabrab rolls her dice and gives us her predictions for the next TAR episode

Astrological Predictions - Episode Three

Once again, Rabrab rolls her dice and gives us her predictions for the next TAR episode.

Astrological Predictions - Episode Two

Last week's Astrological predictions produced some interesting results - Chip and Kim first? Well, in a way. What about this week's predictions?

Episode One: Astrological Predictions

Rabrab roles her Astrological dice to give us her predictions for episode one of TAR5. (For the truly unspoiled, this might contain task/location spoilers.)

Pre-Race Astrological Report

The Great and All-Knowing Rabrab graces The Tarflies with her astrological predictions. Do the stars sparkle from their wisdom, or because they've been off splashing around in the tub?